by Viko

2 weeks ago, Bitcoin price set a record for its third-largest 24-hour gain in the young asset’s short history, rocketing from $7,400 to $10,500 from low to high. 2 days ago, Bitcoin prices again tumbled and the market went bonkers after struggling to gain bearish momentum above $9,000 the previous week. The price rally started at $9,400, continued to fluctuate near a tightened range close to $9,500 with bears and bulls maintaining a balance, and then again dropped by more than $600 (~5%). While the bearish pressure has stopped, with Bitcoin finding some support at $8,850 as the short-term downtrend has ended, analysts have asserted that the cryptocurrency market remains on thin ice. They claim that it may only be a matter of time before bears push the crypto to the low-$8,000s, and maybe even lower.

Once again, Bitcoin may have found itself trading within a descending triangle pattern — a pattern that has repeatedly made the crypto asset disaster-prone throughout the bear market.

If the pattern is a descending triangle, it can take the price to weekly lows, or potentially lower, reaching the bottom of a multi-month bearish zone Bitcoin has been trading within. If Bitcoin price can find support at current levels — roughly $8,800 — it could suggest that the pattern is actually a bull flag and not a descending triangle, with a target of over $11,000. Bloomberg, for instance, wrote that there is a likelihood that if the pressure from bears exists for a longer time, Bitcoin will drop all the way back to $7,300 — back where it was prior to the most recent swing upwards. A failure to resist the last, the bears will target the next support at 8,600 (round number), below which the pattern target near 8,575 will come into play.

A move toward $11,000 or above would set a new higher high, and would likely restore the confidence of bullish crypto investors and support the theory that Bitcoin’s next bull run is beginning. Looking at the short-term price scenario, BTC is on the verge of being oversold. This suggests that in the near future, there will be a rise in price. Moreover, the volume of selling is decreasing, which means that the bulls might seize on the initiative, pushing the price upwards to the $9,000 mark. The price is testing critical weekly support to the downside seen at the $9000 price mark, which the bears are at present in control of driving deeper below.

Bitcoin was ping-ponging between the support and resistance at $9,500. This also coincided with the 100-day moving average (DMA), unable to establish any kind of lively attempt to break past the barriers. The pinch between the 100-DMA (Daily Moving Averages) acting as resistance and the 200 as support, led to a failure and an immediate drop through the volume gap where price doesn’t have much local history. The 50-DMA and the previous range high have subsequently come to support price above the 61.8% retracement from the move up to $10K from the mid $7K lows. The downside appears more compelling, as the price trades below all the key hourly Simple Moving Averages (HMA). Meanwhile, the hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flat just below the midline, backing the bearish bias.

Almost all other crypto-assets have also suffered a valuation loss against the U.S. dollar, but there has been some resilience shown in both Ether (ETH) and EOS, which have continued to outperform Bitcoin over the last week. ETH’s fundamentals have remained strong, despite the downturn seen over the past few months. As reported by this outlet previously, Ethereum-based “decentralized finance” has quickly exploded; Defipulse.com reports that there is over $650 million worth of assets locked in that facet of ETH. Litecoin jumped higher despite Bitcoin’s bear sprints. It’s value increased by 2% at $61. Bakkt’s Bitcoin futures market has seen a flurry of activity. Bakkt Volume Bot, a Twitter account dedicated to publishing data about the exchange’s derivatives market, reported 2 days ago that Bakkt has seen 1,741 BTC worth of contracts traded on Friday. This is equivalent to around $15.5 million, and importantly marks Bakkt’s largest trading day thus far. Earlier this week, XRP’s bulls attempted to propel the cryptocurrency past $0.31, which ultimately proved to be a fleeting move. XRP prices dropped by 6% to $0.26 from its daily highs of $0.30

-Viko

Nov 10, 2019

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