by Viko

Bitcoin fell largely below $10,000 on September 24 and the possible reasons have been discussed in the previous article. No factual reason has appeared which justifies BTC’s nosedive and nor the market is able to recover from it significantly. The prices started at $8050 and dropped another $200 for the next day. The new month of October brought new hopes and runs with it as BTC climbed back to $8500 but it again lost its stamina within 3 days. The weekly prices closed at $7860. It was clearly a boring week for crypto traders as the prices were tightly packed within a close range. By looking at the declining daily volume candles, together with the almost steady recent Bitcoin price action, we can assume that a stronger move will be coming up shortly but only if it crosses the larger band of $7600 — $8500.

Surprisingly, the daily RSI showed bullish divergences. A slight positive ascending uptrend of higher lows is spotted in the RSI when the prices of BTC were going down. This kind of divergence might turn to be a bullish sign that indicates accumulation of bullish orders. It will be still hard to see the bulls back in business until the price at least crosses the 200 WMA line. Another thing to note is that if there won’t be any momentum shift, the possibility for a Death Cross becomes real. The last takes place when the 50-days moving average line crosses below the 200-days line and is considered a very bearish sign. In contrast, the inverse cross, which is named Golden, took place last March, while Bitcoin was trading under $4,000.

From above, maintaining the $8K level, could send Bitcoin to retest old support turned resistance levels at $8200 and $8400. Further above is the significant 200-days moving average line which currently lies around $8550. Around $7,700 sits a confluence of integral technical support levels. These include but aren’t limited to the 200-day moving average; the 365-day exponential moving average, a level that Bitcoin bounced straight off of during mid-2017; the 50-week exponential moving average, among other levels that many say are indicative of Bitcoin’s medium-term trends.

A Twitter user going by “Spookey Dyme” recently drew attention to a key trend: throughout Bitcoin’s last bull market, the cryptocurrency consistently closed above the one-week SuperTrend indicator’s baseline without fail. What’s worrying is that after last week’s drop, Bitcoin has begun to trend near the baseline, which is currently at $7,800. A weekly close under this level, according to historical precedence, would mark an end to the bull market.

Bitcoin dominance is currently at 70%, which will decline significantly as alts continue to gain their positions over the year. XRP, ETH and other alts look extremely bullish for the next month.. ETH is currently trading at $175 which is down 50% since this year’s peak and 87% since its all-time high. Although, ETH’s drop in dominance could be the start of bigger things for Ethereum which is likely to lead the other altcoins into a long-awaited rally. While looking towards ETH’s year-to-date highs, it becomes even more clear as to just how bearish its recent price action has been. It is important to note that although ICOs have already sold off a significant amount of their ETH holdings, data shows that they still hold nearly half of the Ethereum that was raised from their token sales, with their January of 2018 wallet balance sitting at over 4.6 million ETH, while their current wallet balance sits at over 2.2 million ETH. Ripple’s XRP token is remaining relatively stable. Last week, major cryptocurrency payment processor BitPay entered a partnership with Ripple’s investment arm Xpring to support payments with XRP. The payments-focused cryptocurrency is up by a small 0.81% on the day to trade at $0.254.

If the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day, the crypto market’s total capitalization will print what is known as a “death cross”, a sign that last was seen in April of 2018 — just shy of the market’s top in the last cryptocurrency cycle. Regardless, the underlying industry still saw a number of positive developments over the past seven days. They include the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) declaring Bitcoin a non-security, growth in the ecosystem of altcoins, and Bakkt’s completion of a physically-settled block trade. However, Bakkt’s product failed, as per the experts, and was called to be one of the reason of the recent BTC plunge. Published on Friday, Bloomberg reported that the GTI Global Strength Indicator, “a measure of upward and downward movements of successive closing prices,” recently printed a buy for the first time since the cryptocurrency bottomed at $3,150 in the middle of December. It was added that Bitcoin’s ability to consolidate at $8,000 is also a sign that BTC’s price has been building upward momentum.

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