During the 1918 Influenza outbreak, we had two bumps. We had the first bump, which was hundreds of thousands of people affected. Now, what we’re seeing now echoes what happened in 1918, because people have to get back to work.
No one has unlimited foodstuffs. Your children have to be supported. At the same point in time, there’s other types of engagement and social engagement that need to happen to keep people necessarily part and parcel of society.
These pressures are going to open the door for a second wave. Now, the second wave is going to be cross-correlated with a limitation in the market of access to certain goods. For instance, hand sanitizers are becoming a problem.
Coupled with the fact that we’re looking at a hot summer, during which we’re going to see a coronavirus downtick, there will be hotspots across the country, as one person with corona interacts with a bunch of other folks.
You’re going to see the Apple-Google initiative start trying to implement their contact tracing, but there’s big problems and pushing something like that out. You’re going to have to force either a firmware update, or you’re going to have to force some sort of OS update, in order to get that in everyone’s phones.Not everyone’s going to do that. And also, not everyone has the hardware to support some of these new apps. Then on top of that, we’re going to have a limitation in terms of the access to masks. So, China has started to block the exportation of the N95.
And then lastly, 3M is ramping up, but 3M have had a tremendous amount of fraud that has happened there. The purchasing ecosystem is fragmented across the country, the acquisition ecosystem on the state level is still operating in ways that doesn’t work with the speed or expediency that’s necessary to get things to market.
You’ve got all of these factors that are going to culminate about the same time when we start going into early fall, and we see the flu cycle that we typically have, coupled with a secondary build of corona. And you also have to consider that the strains are mutating. In New York, they’ve stopped reporting a lot of this stuff.
They’ve stopped reporting on the mass graves, but we have at least five different variants of Corona in the city. So, let’s finalize what you asked about and all of this is baseline information to get there. I see that cities and rural communities, where you have a lot of people that are working blue collar or white collar jobs have most of most of the risk associated with this. The MTA has had dozens of people die, NYPD has had a couple thousand cops out, and we’ve dozens of cops die. Same thing with the fire department. Same thing with the EMTs.
So, the impact on the working person in America, is relatively significant. And for those folks that we consider essential workers, it’s going to continue to be significant. Folks who are making under $25 an hour are going to be hardest hit. And that’s because they’re going to have continued exposure, in terms of the jobs that they perform in order to maintain the livelihood and operational capacity of different cities.
Average salary for an EMT is $11 to $18. The average salary for a nurse practitioner outside of New York City, varies by the state, but, the nurse practitioners in many cases are making over 100 bucks an hour. We have a problem with morticians. Right now, the backlog of cremation is six weeks in New York. If you don’t claim your body within three to six days, you don’t know where it’s going to go. And they’ve been talking about tagging and storing, but if you end up in a mass grave, you’re never getting out. I don’t care what de Blasio says. I don’t care what poppycock nonsense the governor says.
These types of problems that we’re having in New York are going to be echoed across large population dense centers in the United States. Herd immunity is something that could potentially be there. But, there has to be a better strategy than treating this in a way like smallpox, treating this in a way like the Spanish flu. And, in a way, treating this like polio, because it’s got a lot of aspects of horror that come with it the same way that polio did.
We’ve got Broadway actors here that have holes in their lungs now have body parts amputated because of blood clots. Everyone who’s getting this in the 30s and early 40s is at risk of a stroke now. There’s going to be a secondary impact of that inside of society. And, that’s probably going to be between Fall and Spring of 2021. And, we also may end up with a third effect of this, and this is going to decimate the population. And the decimation is not necessarily in terms of sheer numbers, but it is in terms of sheer access and the will to do things. So, for example, farm workers are having trouble right now in terms of harvesting and so they are changing their business models to go direct to consumer, direct to retail. They’re actually cutting out a lot of these suppliers. Therefore, we’ve been talking about blockchain systems that need to come in for health care and the Fed digital currency systems that are going to come in.
And, lastly, now there’s the political will to get past some of the pork barrel stuff that was inside some of these spending bills. Pelosi had held up the CARES Act by stuffing the Kennedy Center in there and Planned Parenthood, and I understand people’s want for these types of things. But, you shouldn’t be holding up the lending of billions of dollars to Americans at risk and small businesses that need to keep people employed just because of your special interests.
The same thing is happening again, and we’ve had multiple holdups. We’ve had a total of almost $7 trillion worth of injection into the economy thus far. We talked about multiple injections previously. You’re looking at easily moving us into an additional $6 to $10 trillion worth of capital injections over the course of the next year.
Correlated with that is going to be the move to USDT, the move to the United States distributed ledger based dollar, which most likely is going to be gold backed––as an aside, by the way, an ounce of gold right now can buy a significant portion of the S&P. But, if you look at the S&P chart, you’re looking at probably an uptick. And so, as you look at this inside of 2016, you had an uptick and then a downtick. There’s a lot of different market factors at play here that could give different variable indications over the next two months.
We are going to have definite growth of a lot of the stocks associated with these things, and a lot of that’s due to the fact that the commodity prices are going to spike beyond things that you’ve seen before. 26 ounces of Purell hand sanitizer is retailing for $16. That’s on the retail market. The wholesale costs that I’m getting some of these things at are between $2.90 and $8 bucks.
People are buying out entire lots of million 2-3 million. Margins are kind of slim in some of these things. But at the same point in time we’re dealing with test kit challenges. I have to swab manufacturers that I’ve talked to in the past couple of days. And the swab manufacturers are selling to their distributors. The distributor swabs costs anywhere between $1 to $5 bucks. They’re selling them for like $15.
The distributors are price gouging. Same thing that happened to 3M’s distributors is going to happen to them. There’s six layers of brokers in the supply chain. And, everyone’s looking for their 10% or 20% inside of each deal, and no one’s willing to flex and no one’s willing to understand that half the time this is stuff is going to hospitals. Unless the Department of Justice comes down a little harder on people who are charging over 20% margins.
Same thing you see during every pandemic, the same things you see, after a hurricane, the same things, are now becoming the status quo. In a world where disrupted supply chains are going to affect the most economically impoverished, the essential workers are continuing to take death tolls that they shouldn’t.
This text is adapted from comments made by Oz Sultan on Genius Wednesdays, which you can join Wednesdays at 12pm PT.